Bayesian Approaches Can Help Make Better Sense of Ecotoxicological Information in Risk Assessments

Ecological risk assessment is an increasingly used process for estimating and characterising the likelihood and the effects of human actions on ecosystems. The process is aimed at improving decision-making, particularly in quantifying the expected magnitude of effects and the uncertainty in these predictions (Suter 1993; Burgman 2005; Hart et al. 2005). Sources of uncertainty in a risk assessment include our poor understanding of complex ecosystems and the general paucity of available data on these systems. Until recently there have been few methods available that enable us to quantify risk, while explicitly acknowledging these uncertainties. Because of this, little progress has been made in developing ways to assess the effects of multiple hazards within ecosystems, with most risk assessments being primarily focussed on single hazards or stressors (Hart et al. in press).